An Improved Covariate for Projecting Future Rainfall Extremes?

Abstract

Projection of extreme rainfall under climate change remains an area of considerable uncertainty. In the absence of geographically consistent simulations of extreme rainfall for the future, alternatives relying on physical relationships between a warmer atmosphere and its moisture carrying capacity are projected, scaling with a known atmospheric covariate. The most common atmospheric covariate adopted is surface air temperature, as it exhibits great consistency across climate model simulations into the future and, as per the Clausius-Clapeyron relationship, has a well-established link to atmospheric moisture capacity. However, empirical assessments of this relationship show that it varies wit..